甘肃中部地区秸秆资源饲料化利用的载畜发展潜力情景模拟分析

罗峰; 张浩珍; 梁晓龙; 姜力玮; 赵荣芳; 陈强强

doi:10.11829/j.issn.1001-0629.2019-0509

甘肃中部地区秸秆资源饲料化利用的载畜发展潜力情景模拟分析

1.
甘肃农业大学财经学院，甘肃兰州 730070
2.
甘肃省区域农业与产业组织研究中心，甘肃兰州 730070

基金项目: 甘肃农业大学青年研究生指导教师扶持基金项目(GAU-QNDS-201705)；甘肃农业大学学科建设专项基金(GAU-XKJS-2018-235)；甘肃省社科项目(19YB127)

摘要: 运用情景模拟分析法构建了以秸秆载畜为表征的作物种植结构调整和秸秆饲料化利用率变动两种情景，以甘肃中部地区所辖的定西市、白银市、兰州市及临夏州农牧交错区为例，采用9种不同方案对秸秆载畜发展潜力及经济效益进行了实证研究。结果表明，A₃ + B₃方案的秸秆载畜量最多，发展潜力高达131.00万羊单位，经济效益可达137 969.20万元，为最优方案；情景Ⅰ + 情景Ⅱ不同组合方案下可收集秸秆资源模拟载畜量差异明显，其中，最优与最劣(A₁ + B₁)方案相差96.33万羊单位，秸秆资源饲料化利用的载畜发展潜力巨大；秸秆饲料化利用率调整(B方案)，对秸秆载畜量提升的影响最大。若在甘肃中部地区推行作物种植结构调整，提高秸秆饲料化利用率，将会大幅度提高农牧区经济发展水平，促进农牧产业融合循环发展。

关键词:

English

Scenario simulation analysis of the livestock-carrying development potential of the feed utilization of straw resources in central Gansu Province

1.
College of Finance and Economics, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
2.
Gansu Regional Agricultural and Industrial Organization Research Center, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China

Received Date: 2019-10-08
Accepted Date: 2019-12-12
Available Online: 2020-05-29
Publish Date: 2020-05-31

Abstract: Using the scenario simulation analysis method, two scenarios were constructed : adjustments to the crop planting structure and straw feed utilization rate. Taking the agro-pastoral ecotone of Dingxi, Baiyin, Lanzhou, and Linxia in the central part of Gansu Province as an example, nine different schemes were used for an empirical study on the development potential and economic benefits of straw livestock. The results show that A₃ + B₃ was the optimal scheme as it had the largest straw carrying capacity, the development potential was as high as 1.31 million sheep units, and the economic benefit could reach 1.379 692 billion CNY. In addition, there was a significant difference in the livestock carrying capacity of the collected straw resources under different combinations of scenarios Ⅰ + Ⅱ. The difference between the optimal and worst (A₁ + B₁) schemes was 963 300 sheep units, and the livestock-carrying potential of straw resources is huge. The adjustments to the straw feed utilization rate (scheme B) had the greatest impact on the straw livestock carrying capacity. If the central region adjusts the crop planting structure and improves the utilization rate of straw feed, this will greatly improve the level of economic development in agricultural and pastoral areas and promote the integrated and circular development of agricultural and animal husbandry industries.

Keywords:

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参考文献

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图 1 2000–2016年甘肃中部地区小麦、玉米和马铃薯播种面积占比变化趋势

Figure 1. Trends in the proportions of wheat, maize and potato planting area in central Gansu from 2000 to 2016

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表 1 2000–2016年甘肃中部地区作物播种面积占比的阶段变化率

Table 1 Change rates of the crop planting area in central Gansu from 2000 to 2016

%
作物 Crop	年份 Year
作物 Crop	2000–2005	2005–2011	2011–2016
小麦 Wheat	–1.86	–2.03	–1.01
玉米 Corn	0.56	1.72	1.14
马铃薯 Potato	1.30	0.31	–0.14

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表 2 情景Ⅰ方案下作物播种面积调整模拟构建

Table 2 Simulation of the adjustments to the crop planting area under scenario Ⅰ

方案 Program	程度 Degree	玉米调增比率 Corn increase ratio/%
A₁	低 Low	1.01
A₂	中 Medium	1.86
A₃	高 High	2.03

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表 3 2000–2017年全国秸秆资源饲料化利用率

Table 3 Feed utilization rate of straw resources inChina from 2000 to 2017

年份 Year	地区　　 Area	饲料化利用率 Feed utilization rate/%	参考文献 Reference
2000	全国 China	22.60	[12]
2008	安徽 Anhui, China	23.91	[13]
2008	全国 China	27.13	[14]
2011	新疆 Xinjiang, China	53.04	[15]
2011	吉林 Jilin, China	10.67	[16]
2015	黄淮海 Huang Huaihai, China	31.60	[17]
2015	河南 Henan, China	13.05	[18]
2015	湖北 Hubei, China	8.00	[19]
2015	东北 Northeast, China	20.00	[20]
2016	浙江 Zhejiang, China	12.56	[21]
2016	河南泌阳 Biyang, Henan	57.70	[22]
2017	河北 Hebei, China	1.76	[23]
2017	全国 China	31.00	[24]

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表 4 情景Ⅱ方案下秸秆资源饲料化利用率模拟构建

Table 4 Simulation of the feed utilization rates of straw resources under scenario Ⅱ

方案　　Program	程度 Degree	秸秆饲料化利用率 Straw feed utilization rate/%
B₁	高 High	65.56
B₂	中 Medium	71.52
B₃	低 Low	77.48

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表 5 甘肃中部地区主要农作物秸秆资源量估算主要参数

Table 5 Main parameters of the main crop straw resources in central Gansu

作物 Crop	草谷比 Grass valley ratio	果实水分系数 Fruit moisture coefficient/%	可收集系数 Collectable coefficient
小麦 Wheat	1.27^[6]	7.00^[25]	0.83^[9]
玉米 Corn	1.32^[7]	7.71^[25]	0.83^[9]
马铃薯 Potato	1.05^[8]	76.90^[25]	0.60^[9]

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表 6 情景Ⅰ方案下甘肃中部地区主要作物播种面积调整

Table 6 Adjustments in the planting area of the main crops in central Gansu under scenario Ⅰ

作物 Crop	基年播种面积 Base year planting area/ (× 10⁴ hm²)	程度 Degree	增减率 Increase or decrease rate/%	面积增减量 Area increase and decrease/ (× 10⁴ hm²)	调整后面积 Adjusted area/ (× 10⁴ hm²)
小麦 Wheat	15.92	低 Low	1.01	0.16	15.76
	15.92	中 Medium	1.86	0.29	15.63
	15.92	高 High	2.03	0.32	15.60
玉米 Corn	34.21	低 Low	1.01	0.16	34.37
	34.21	中 Medium	1.86	0.30	34.51
	34.21	高 High	2.03	0.32	34.53

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表 7 情景Ⅰ模拟方案下甘肃中部地区三大作物播种面积

Table 7 Sowed area of the three major crops in central Gansu under scenario Ⅰ

× 10⁴ hm²
作物 Crop	方案 Program
作物 Crop	A₁	A₂	A₃
小麦 Wheat	15.76	15.63	15.60
玉米 Corn	34.37	34.51	34.53
马铃薯 Potato	34.25	34.25	34.25

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表 8 情景Ⅰ方案下可收集秸秆资源总量

Table 8 Total straw resources collected under scenario Ⅰ

× 10⁴ t
作物 Crop	方案 Program
作物 Crop	A₁	A₂	A₃
小麦 Wheat	53.09	52.63	52.54
玉米 Corn	184.01	200.16	200.32
马铃薯 Potato	14.43	14.43	14.43
总量 Total	251.52	267.22	267.28

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表 9 情景Ⅰ+ 情景Ⅱ模拟方案下可收集秸秆资源载畜发展潜力及经济效益估算

Table 9 Estimation of the development potential and economic benefits of collectable straw resources for livestock under scenarios Ⅰ + Ⅱ

方案组合 Program combination	秸秆饲料化利用总量 Total amount of straw/(× 10⁴ t)	模拟载畜量 W_itCarrying capacity/ (× 10⁴ sheep unit)	基年载畜量 W Base year carrying capacity/ (× 10⁴ sheep unit)	载畜发展潜力 RM Livestock-carrying development potential/ (× 10⁴ sheep unit)	模拟载畜收入 Simulate livestock income/ (× 10⁴ CNY)	经济效益 EM Economic benefit/ (× 10⁴ CNY)
A₁ + B₁	164.90	376.48	341.81	34.67	396 508.74	36 514.44
A₁ + B₂	179.89	410.70	341.81	68.89	432 549.24	72 554.95
A₁ + B₃	194.88	444.93	341.81	103.12	468 600.28	108 605.98
A₂ + B₁	175.19	399.97	341.81	58.16	421 248.40	61 254.11
A₂ + B₂	191.11	436.33	341.81	94.52	459 542.76	99 548.46
A₂ + B₃	207.04	472.69	341.81	130.88	497 837.11	137 842.82
A₃ + B₁	175.23	400.07	341.81	58.26	421 353.72	61 359.43
A₃ + B₂	191.16	436.44	341.81	94.63	459 658.61	99 664.32
A₃ + B₃	207.09	472.81	341.81	131.00	497 963.49	137 969.20

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参考文献(31)

[1]	中国统计局. 甘肃发展年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2006 – 2016. China Statistics Bureau. Gansu Development Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2006 – 2016.
[2]	高筱苏. 情景分析在公司规划中的应用. 预测, 1990(2): 6-11. GAO X S. Application of scenario analysis in corporate planning. Forecasting, 1990(2): 6-11.
[3]	潘岳汉, 易晓溦. 商业银行压力测试宏观情景构建及应用: 基于FAVAR模型. 金融论坛, 2018, 23(11): 3-14, 49. PAN Y H, YI X W. The construction and application of macro-situation of stress test in commercial bank: Based on FAVAR Model. Finance Forum, 2018, 23(11): 3-14, 49.
[4]	高寒. 情景描述法: 一种技术预测方法介绍. 预测, 1991(6): 58-60. GAO H. Scenario description method: Introduction to a technology prediction method. Forecasting, 1991(6): 58-60.
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甘肃中部地区秸秆资源饲料化利用的载畜发展潜力情景模拟分析

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Scenario simulation analysis of the livestock-carrying development potential of the feed utilization of straw resources in central Gansu Province

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