Assessment and zoning of fire risk in Shanxi Province based on spatial Logistic model

MODIS data in 2002-2012 was used to build the spatial logistic fire risk model based on the spatial distribution of fire and fire influencing factor by using geographic information system technology in Shanxi Province. Fire risk zoning study was conducted in a long temporal scale and provincial spatial scale. Logistic model of fire risk was built by spatial samples in fires region, and the simulated model fit well with the fire influencing factors (P<0.05), and the relative operating characteristic (ROC) was 0.757. The probability distribution map of fire events was made by map algebra. Fire area of Shanxi Province was zoned five classes, include none, low, moderate, high, and extremely high fire risk zones. The factors influence the fire event occur include altitude (GC), land use type (LT), land surface temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and global vegetation moisture index (GVMI), whereas the influences of slope (PD) and distance to the nearest path (DL) exhibit insignificant in Shanxi Province. The NDVI and LST are significant factors in Shanxi Province globally, whereas the GC, LT and GVMI are only significant factors locally. Seven fire prevention regions are delimitated according to the fire influencing factors. Different fire prevention policies and emphases should be taken into consideration for each of the seven fire prevention regions.