Dynamic assessment of ecological risk owing to drought in alpine meadows based on SPEI index and GIS technology

LI Wenlong; CAI Dong; SU Wenliang; WEI Wei; ZHU Gaofeng; ZHAO Zhigang; XU Jing

doi:10.11829/j.issn.1001-0629.2018-0278

Pratacultural Science > 2019 > 36(6): 1531-1543. > DOI: 10.11829/j.issn.1001-0629.2018-0278

LI W L, CAI D, SU W L, WEI W, ZHU G F, ZHAO Z G, XU J. Dynamic assessment of ecological risk owing to drought in alpine meadows based on SPEI index and GIS technology. Pratacultural Science, 2019, 36(6): 1531-1543 . DOI: 10.11829/j.issn.1001-0629.2018-0278

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Dynamic assessment of ecological risk owing to drought in alpine meadows based on SPEI index and GIS technology

1.
State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems / College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China
2.
College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
3.
State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems / School of Life Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
4.
School of Agriculture and Forestry Economic and Management, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China

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Corresponding author:
CAI Dong　E-mail: 1944910846@qq.com
Received Date: May 03, 2018
Accepted Date: September 19, 2018
Available Online: June 27, 2019
Published Date: May 31, 2019

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Abstract

Abstract

The study of drought risk is a hot topic in environmental research. We selected Gannan Prefecture as the study area and combining GIS spatial analysis and statistical methods, we calculated the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the years 1955 to 2014 in the study area; the SPEI was selected as the optimum time scale for monitoring drought in the alpine meadows of Gannan Prefecture. In addition, based on the SPEI index and drought risk probability model, ecological risk assessment due to drought was conducted. Four major results were observed. 1) SPEI6 is the optimal value for monitoring alpine meadows based on the SPEI index. 2) The results of Morlet continuous wavelet analysis showed that there was a significant " dry–wet” change in the alpine meadow of the study area within a short period of 3–6 years. 3) In terms of spatial distribution, the occurrence of drought in the growing season of the alpine meadows was mainly in the eastern part of Gannan Prefecture in the past 15 years, while the frequency of drought in the western part has been relatively low. Overall, the frequency of drought in the entire study area has gradually reduced over the past 15 years. 4) The areas with a high risk of drought in the future were located in the south of Luqu county and the south of Maqu county, especially around the Maqu wetland. The results of this study can provide a useful reference for related research on the ecological safety of meadow resources.
- alpine meadow,
- SPEI,
- gannan prefecture,
- drought,
- ecological risk

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