Forecast of future climate change trend in typical ecological regions of the Qinghai Plateau

Changes in temperature and precipitation in typical ecological function areas of the Qinghai Plateau from 2019 to 2050 were studied using representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results showed that the average annual temperatures of five ecological functional zones increase under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 , and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, the annual precipitation in the Hehuang area shows a decreasing trend, while those in other regions show an increasing trend. In the scenario of RCP 8.5, the annual precipitations in the five ecological function areas showed an increasing trend. Through annual analysis, the average temperature will peak in 2040 to 2049 under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and will increase by 2.0 to 2.1 ℃ and 2.4 to 2.5 ℃ in 2040 to 2049 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, found that the average annual temperatures of the five ecological function areas in the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios all showed sharp changes, but at different times. The precipitation changes occured in different years under the three scenarios in the Chaidamu basin Basin area. The precipitation changes occur under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the Qinghai Lake area. The precipitation changes occur under RCP 4.5 in the Qilian Mountain area. The precipitation changes occur under RCP 2.6 in the Hehuang area. The precipitation changes occur under RCP 8.5 scenario for the Sanjiangyuan area. According to the accumulation of anomalies test anomalies, under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the cumulative average temperatures and precipitations of the five ecological function areas show an upward trend, indicating high temperature and precipitation levels from 2019 to 2050. From 1971 to 2000, the temperature and precipitation of the five ecological function areas showed an increasing trend, and the warming rates of the five ecological function areas in the medium- and high- emission scenarios were higher than that of the reference year. The rate of increase of precipitation in the base year of the four ecological function zones, except for the Hehuang area is less than that in the next 30 years under the three emission scenarios. In these warm and humid environments, the growth of herbage(crops) will be affected, which will affect the development of animal husbandry and agriculture.