Scenario simulation analysis of the livestock-carrying development potential of the feed utilization of straw resources in central Gansu Province

Using the scenario simulation analysis method, two scenarios were constructed : adjustments to the crop planting structure and straw feed utilization rate. Taking the agro-pastoral ecotone of Dingxi, Baiyin, Lanzhou, and Linxia in the central part of Gansu Province as an example, nine different schemes were used for an empirical study on the development potential and economic benefits of straw livestock. The results show that A₃ + B₃ was the optimal scheme as it had the largest straw carrying capacity, the development potential was as high as 1.31 million sheep units, and the economic benefit could reach 1.379 692 billion CNY. In addition, there was a significant difference in the livestock carrying capacity of the collected straw resources under different combinations of scenarios Ⅰ + Ⅱ. The difference between the optimal and worst (A₁ + B₁) schemes was 963 300 sheep units, and the livestock-carrying potential of straw resources is huge. The adjustments to the straw feed utilization rate (scheme B) had the greatest impact on the straw livestock carrying capacity. If the central region adjusts the crop planting structure and improves the utilization rate of straw feed, this will greatly improve the level of economic development in agricultural and pastoral areas and promote the integrated and circular development of agricultural and animal husbandry industries.