International trade patterns and prediction of import and export of grass seeds in China

Based on the trade data from 2008 to 2019, this study analyzes the trade volume and international trade pattern of grass seeds using the H-P filtering method and the ARIMA model(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model) to predict import and export volumes. The results show that the import of grass seeds in China has been on the rise since 2008, especially since 2014. The seeds of Lolium perenne, Festuca ovina, and Poa pratensis are mainly imported. The United States, Canada, Denmark, and Argentina are the main source countries. Regarding export, only Medicago sativa seeds are exported to neighboring countries such as Japan and South Korea. The volume of export has decreased yearly, and the grass seed trade shows a net import pattern. The prediction results show that the import of grass seeds in China rises at first and then decreases, reaching a peak of 56.33 thousand tons in 2023. It is estimated that the import of grass seeds will be 54.82 thousand tons by 2030. The export volume of grass seeds has recovered after 2018, and it is expected that in 2030 it will be 756.38 tons. In the short-term, the pattern of net import of grass seeds will continue, and the grass seeds market will continue to be one of high dependence on foreign countries. By analyzing the experience of developed countries such as the United States in production and trade, some suggestions are put forward for the development of the grass industry in China.