Analysis of the potential distribution and suitability of five Kalidium species

Using a total of 503 geographical distribution points and 29 environmental variables, this study employed ArcGIS and the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to analyze the potential adaptability areas, driving factors, and niche parameters for five Kalidium species under different climate scenarios in baseline and future periods, and overlaid land use data with the highly suitable areas of the five Kalidium species under the baseline climate scenario. The results showed that: 1) the main factors driving the distribution of areas suitable for the five Kalidium species were different, but climate factors were dominant for them all, and topography and soil affected the distribution of suitable areas. 2) compared with the baseline climate scenario, only the middle- and high-suitability areas for Kalidium caspicum had shrunk in the 2050 period under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, whereas the middle and high fitness areas for the five species in the other time periods under different climate scenarios exhibited different degrees of expansion. 3) the niche parameters of the main factors driving the five species and the high fitness area were different. 4) part of the land was developed and utilized in the high-suitability areas of the five species under the baseline climate scenario. This study has a certain theoretical significance and reference value for the management, protection, and utilization of the distribution area for Kalidium species.