Study on inter-provincial grain trade and its impacts on virtual water and soil resources in China

Water and land resources are the material basis for human survival; however, the spatial mismatch between land or water and food consumption has affected food security and the sustainable use of resources in China. Grain trade among provinces has been beneficial for food security in China to a certain extent, but how this trade influences land and water resources should be studied more deeply. To bridge these gaps, based on the CHINAGRO model and previous studies, this study modeled grain trade among provinces in China for the year 2016. Based on the principles of “water footprint” and “land footprint,” we estimated the virtual flows of water and land and then discussed their influences on national water and land resources. The main results suggest that although grain production was slightly higher than consumption, nearly half of all provinces presented a lack of cereals in 2016. The amount of the grain trade among provinces accounted for approximately 11% of national grain production, with a flow of “north to south” in China. The national grain trade among provinces has led to water saving but land wastage in China. Hence, adjusting the diet structure, promoting the development of grassland agriculture, fully considering the role of increasing grain and saving grain, improving the efficiency of resource utilization, and reducing the abandonment of arable land in suitable areas will be beneficial for food security and the rational utilization of resources in China.