Assessment of suitable Potentilla anserina habitat and its response to climate change in the source region of the Yellow River based on ensemble species distribution modeling

Potentilla anserina is a herbaceous perennial plant within the family Rosaceae that is widely distributed in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR), and is one of the main economically important wild plants growing on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. To date, however, the spatial distribution of P. anserina has yet to be determined, which is primarily attributable to a lack of high-precision survey data and effective methods that are applicable at a regional scale. In this study, we propose a sampling method based on fragmentation monitoring and analysis with aerial photography (FragMAP) to obtain basic sampling data for species distribution models (BIOMODs). During the period between 2018 and 2020, we obtained > 3000 observation samples (aerial photographs) in the SRYR, and manually identified whether P. anserina appears or not (i.e., a 0,1 dataset) as the basic driving data. Combined with data obtained for the climate, terrain, and soil, we predicted the potential and future distributions (in the 2050s and 2070s) of P. anserina against a background of climate change. The findings are as followings: 1) Use of an ensemble model can reduce the uncertainty of spatial distribution predictions for P. anserina in the SRYR. 2) P. anserina is distributed primarily in the central and southeast regions of the SRYR, and the environmental factors having the most pronounced influence on P. anserina spatial distribution are annual precipitation and elevation. 3) In the projected future climate scenarios, the proportion of extremely suitable P. anserina habitat in the SRYR initially increased, although subsequently underwent a reduction. In this study, we succeeded in modeling the potential distribution characteristics of P. anserina at a regional scale. These findings can provide the theoretical and practical bases necessary for the rational management and utilization of economically important crops in alpine grassland, the ecological restoration of the source area of the Yellow River, and the ecological reconstruction of alpine regions.