The trade pattern of alfalfa importation into China and its influencing factors

With the increasing importation of alfalfa (Medicago sativa), China’s reliance on foreign sources of alfalfa is increasing; the dairy industry in China is, therefore, being increasingly affected by the international supply of alfalfa. In this study we constructed a trade gravity model based on China’s alfalfa trade pattern to analyze the key factors affecting China’s alfalfa imports; we used data from nine major alfalfa export countries (2008－2019), including the United States, Australia, Canada, Spain, Mongolia, Bulgaria, Kyrgyzstan, Argentina, and Sudan. Overall, the results indicated that the proportion of dairy cows in large-scale farms in China, RMB exchange rate, membership status in WTO and APEC, and whether exporting countries border China have facilitating effects on the alfalfa grass trade; in contrast, GDP per capita and distance of trading partner countries hinder the alfalfa grass trade. However, domestic grassland financial input and domestic commercial alfalfa grass production have no significant effect on the alfalfa grass trade. Based on these results, we propose countermeasures, such as promoting diversification of import sources, optimizing industrial support policies, and establishing high-quality alfalfa production bases.