Preliminary establishment and application of turfgrass disease risk evaluation system

In order to find an uniform solution for evaluating the risk of turf diseases, pest risk analysis system to turf disease was introduced and a model for analyzing the risk level of the pest was developed. Based on the rule of standards for pest measurements (ISPM), fuzzy mathematics theory and characteristics of the turf grass ecosystem, we discussed the criterion of evaluation and calculation measures of the model on the method of AHP and Delphi. In this study, an assessment model, including seventeen evaluation indexes, was established. The estimative equation was R=5P1P2P3P4P5. Using this model, five kinds of turfgrass diseases were evaluated. The results showed that the high risk level with the value from 0.6 to 0.8 involved three kinds of diseases, such as Rhizoctonia solani，Phythium ultimum and Fusarium spp. The middle risk level with the value from 0.4 to 0.6 involved two kinds of diseases， Puccinia spp. and Drechslera spp. In factual tasks， we should set up strategies of the risk management and make concrete analysis for concrete problems according to different disease risk levels.