Population dynamics and prediction for Meriones meridianus in Alxa desert

The dynamics of Meriones meridianus population both in bangrazing and rotationgrazing area were studied by live trap method in Alxa desert from 2002 to 2010, and further analysed its seasonal and year variation. Meanwhile, a prediction model for M. meridianus population was achieved by applying the linear regression analysis. The results showed that atotal number of 2 360 M. meridianus were captured during experimental period, amount to 39.68% captured rat, which indicated M. meridianus was the dominant species in this area. In rotational grazing area, the capture rate of M. meridianus was 13.25% in 2008 was 57 times than the lowest population, and significantly greater than the other years. In bangrazing area, the population of M. meridianus exhibited a small fluctuation and capture rate, was lower than 4% each year. Linear regression analysis showed that the capture rate in July can be estimated by the capture rate in April, and the prediction accuracy was very high. The prediction function for ban grazing area was y2=0.384 9+1.085 4x1（P=0.046，r2=0.456，df=8）, and the prediction function for ban grazing area was y2=-0.974 1+2.397 3x2（P＜0.001，r2=0.925，df=8）.