Extinction risk and population viability analysis of wild Pere Davids deer

The stochastic exponential growth model and birthdeath process model were established to analyze the extinction risk and population viability with detected data of wild Pere Davids deer populations. The first model showed that the stochastic factors performed a significant impact on population dynamics. The probability of extinction gradually increased as the increasing of variance. It had little effect on the probability of extinction to keep stocking a small number of deer under the condition of stable variance. In addition, the calculated population doubling time was 10 years with birthdeath process model while the birth rate was 16.13% and the death rate was 7.13%. At the same time, the population doubling time on 95% confidential level was calculated with different fertility and mortality.