Spatial and temporal change of arable land resource and its driving force in the Gannan Tibetan autonomous prefecture

Based on statistical data in Gannan prefecture from 1997 to 2006, the generally changeable trend of arable land area, spatial difference and driving factors causing changes in arable land area were investigated by using factor analysis and regression in this study. This study indicated that the total area of arable land was in a reduction trend, and this reduction was significantly different among spatial distribution. Fixed assets, total agricultural output, rural per capita net income and urbanization level were main factors contributing to the reduction of arable land area and conversion cropland to grassland and forest was the shortterm and temporal factor contributing to the reduction of arable land area in Gannan prefecture. In this study, a multiple regression equation was developed by using the relationship between the arable land areas and driving forces. The arable land area from 2007 to 2020 in Gannan prefecture was predicted by developed multiple regression equation.