Influence of climate warming on change characteristic of husbandry production critical period in Northeastern Qinghai during 1961-2013

Based on daily temperature data collected from 9 meteorological stations in Southern Qinghai Pastoral areas from 1961 to 2013, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of animal husbandry critical period, such as growing season, green grass duration, fatten duration and fat-loss duration of livestock were analysis and the change trend of the future animal husbandry production critical period from 2015 to 2035 in RCPs(Representative Concentration Pathways) scene were forecast using the methods of linear regression, morlet analysis and MannKendall test. During these studied 53 years from 1961-2013, the growing season, green grass duration and fatten duration extended with earlier start and later end which lead to significantly longer duration days with extend rate of 2.5, 4.8, 4.6 d10a-1, respectively. However, fatloss duration reversely shorten with the shorten rate of 4.0 d 10a-1. These four indices all had abrupt climate change which happened at 1997/1998. Green grass duration had 8~12 a and 16~18 a cycle and fatten duration and fat-loss duration fluctuated in 4~6 a, 8~12 a, 16~18 a. Under RCPs scene, it predicted that the growing season, green grass duration and fatten duration averagely extended the 11.5~21.5 d and fat-loss duration shorten 15.7~18.1 d in the next 20 years which will be very beneficial to the livestock production in Southern Qinghai Pastoral areas.